Hawaii ended 2025 with nearly flat visitor arrivals and a tourism economy still short of its pre-COVID peak — and below what many hotels and small businesses say they need to stay afloat.
Preliminary data released Thursday by the state Department of Business, Economic Development and Tourism shows 9.64 million visitors came to Hawaii last year, a 0.6% dip from 2024 and far short of the 10.4 million arrivals recorded in 2019. The slowdown, which started after May and ran through December, capped a year of uneven arrivals performance.
Total visitor spending climbed 5.7% to $21.75 billion in nominal dollars, which aren’t adjusted for inflation. Daily spending reached a record $273 per person, though inflation would reduce the real gain.
DBEDT Director James K. Tokioka said the results reflect “steady demand despite shifting market conditions,” pointing to strong U.S. spending, improving Japan arrivals and continued recovery on Maui.
Industry leaders, however, say the top-line numbers obscure mounting pressures — rising operating costs, weak international markets, and the multiyear closure of the Hawai‘i Convention Center.
Arrivals finished just shy of DBEDT’s 2025 forecast, while spending slightly exceeded expectations, but many in the visitor industry had braced for worse after arrivals lost momentum heading into the holiday season.
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December underscored the year‑end slowdown. Arrivals fell 4.3% to 868,894 visitors, while spending rose 3.7% to $2.12 billion in nominal dollars. Oahu posted declines in both arrivals and spending, Maui continued its post‑wildfire recovery with gains in both, and Kauai saw higher spending despite a slight dip in visitor counts.Visitors to Hawaii island in December fell, while nominal spending rose.
Major events such as the Honolulu Marathon and Pacifichem helped lift the month, but Pacifichem is expected to be the last major citywide event until the convention center reopens in 2028 after roof repairs and other renovations.
Tourism officials say 2026 will hinge on Japan’s recovery and how well Hawaii manages the convention center’s partial shutdown.
Jerry Gibson, president of the Hawai‘i Hotel Alliance, said January “feels a little better than last year,” though official numbers are pending. Winter storms on the mainland, he added, may push more travelers toward warm-weather destinations.
Keith Vieira, principal of KV & Associates, Hospitality Consulting, said 2026 is projected to be flat with 2025 — which itself was flat with 2024 — and noted that 2024 was already weakened by the Maui wildfires. Both leaders stressed that Hawaii is “nowhere out of the woods.”
“We have a tremendous amount of work to do to keep the year in line,” Gibson said.
Vieira agreed: “Momentum in advance bookings is key. We’re beginning to see some rebound, but we’re not competitive marketing‑wise with our comp set.”
Middle market soft
Gibson said luxury properties “won the day” in 2025 and the neighbor islands generally outperformed Oahu. Maui showed “positive green shoots” as recovery continued on the south and west sides. But he warned that operating costs are rising sharply due to new labor agreements, higher wages, and surging goods and shipping prices.
Vieira said stagnant hotel occupancy — averaging 73.9% last year — is squeezing operators, and may affect the smaller businesses that cater to Hawaii’s visitor industry.
“At 73.9%, all the mom and pops can’t survive,” he said, adding that closures and layoffs are already rippling through the industry and junior workers are struggling to secure enough hours.
Recent labor notices underscore the strain. DFS Group is closing its Waikiki and airport duty‑free sites through March, resulting in 183 layoffs. Wolfgang’s Steakhouse Maui will close Jan. 31, Kauaʻi Coffee Company will close March 28 amid a leasing dispute, and Jinya Ramen Bar Honolulu will close Feb. 9. Paradise Cove Luau shut down at the end of December, and both Watabe Wedding Corp. and the Polynesian Cultural Center have cut staff in recent months.
Gibson said the state cannot rely solely on high-end travelers.“We’re happy with the luxury increases, but we’ve got to work on the middle segment of the economy,” he said. “They all make up the total mix we need in Hawaii.”
Vieira agreed, arguing that Hawaii’s long-term strength has always come from repeat, loyal visitors — not just high spending ones. “There’s no loyalty like that from the super wealthy,” he said.
International lag
Both leaders said Hawaii must reinvest in marketing as prices rise and international markets lag. Japan, Canada and Oceania all remain below pre-pandemic levels, with Canada particularly weak. Vieira said the industry will again push for the state to dedicate 10% of the transient accommodations tax — roughly $120 million — to tourism marketing, calling it one of the few state investments with a clear return.
Market performance in 2025 reflected the divide. The U.S. West in 2025 remained Hawaii’s largest and strongest market — arrivals grew a scant 0.3% from 2024; however, spending rose 9% to $10.51 billion in nominal dollars. Visitors from the U.S. East rose 1.4% from 2024, and they spent $6.61 billion in nominal dollars, an 8.9% year-over-year increase. Arrivals from Japan, which is still recovering from the pandemic, rose 3.3% to 731,922, while spending grew 2.9% to $1.08 billion in nominal dollars.
Some 394,345 visitors came from Canada in 2025, an 11.6% drop amid economic and political uncertainty. Spending by visitors from Canada in 2025 fell 8.7% year over year to $996.7 million in nominal dollars.
Cruise arrivals declined in 2025, with out‑of‑state cruise visitors down nearly 11%. Pride of America was out of service for more than a month for maintenance.
Both leaders warned that the temporary closure of the Hawai‘i Convention Center — expected to last until early 2028 — will hurt group business statewide.
“It’s going to have a big impact,” Gibson said. “We won’t get the rainbow effect to the other islands.”
Vieira said 2026 is “not a great group year,” and hotels may be forced to reduce staffing or restaurant hours as operating costs rise 5% to 8%.
BY THE NUMBERS
9.64 million
Visitors to Hawaii in 2025
-0.6%
Difference in arrivals from 2024
$21.75 billion
Total visitor spending
731,922
Arrivals from Japan, up 3.3% from 2024