There aren’t enough gigabytes in cyberspace, column inches of newsprint or neurons in my (aging) mind to detail the roster mayhem across college sports in calendar 2025 alone. Indeed, those aspiring to process it all are either MENSA candidates and/or in need of immediate and intense counseling.
But with the transfer portal closing this week for men’s basketball (Tuesday) and football (Friday), a few random observations won’t hurt, will they?
The Big Picture
Steered by former Auburn athletic director Jay Jacobs and former White House Press Secretary Ari Fleischer, a group called AD Advisors has conducted multi-year studies of the transfer market in Bowl Subdivision football and Division I men’s basketball, the latter effort assisted by Timark, a college athletics data and analytics firm.
In both surveys, at least 60% of portal entries either transferred down one or more levels, or did not find a new team. That rate increased to 70% for basketball athletes in the five major conferences: ACC, Big 12, SEC, Big Ten and Big East.
Not to suggest that all downward moves are suboptimal. Many, in fact, prove valuable.
In 2023, Arizona transfer quarterback Jordan McCloud threw 35 touchdowns and led James Madison to an 11-1 regular season and Armed Forces Bowl bid. After two unproductive seasons at West Virginia, receiver Ali Jennings caught a combined 116 passes in two years at Old Dominion.
But consider the flip side.
Researchers found that 10% of the 800 athletes who left the 15 FBS programs surveyed from 2020-2024 did not find another college football home. Among the nearly 3,000 power conference basketball players who transferred between 2019-24, approximately 21% did not sign with another Division I program.
The rate was a jarring 61% for the more than 9,000 transfers from low-major leagues such as the MEAC and Coastal Athletic Association. That’s approximately 5,500 athletes and a cautionary tale for anyone who considers the portal a cure-all.
One other intriguing nugget from the basketball survey, which was released last week: The most common destination for players who remained at the power conference level was within their own league. Recent ACC examples include Virginia’s Isaac McKneely and Dai Dai Ames to Louisville and Cal, respectively.
Talent Drain, Part I
Amplifying the financial challenges confronting HBCU institutions and their athletic departments, the top five scorers this past basketball season in the Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference entered the portal.
They are, in order: Howard’s Blake Harper, Norfolk State’s Brian Moore (to Grand Canyon), Delaware State’s Robert Smith, Maryland-Eastern Shore’s Ketron Shaw (to ODU) and North Carolina Central’s Po’Boigh King.
ODU coach Mike Jones knows first-hand how productive Shaw was.
The 6-foot-5 wing scored a season-high 30 points in the Hawks’ 73-71 loss to the Monarchs in mid-November. He made 9 of 17 shots from the field and 9 of 10 free throws while playing the entire 40 minutes and collaring six rebounds.
ODU will need similar production from Shaw to replace Sean Durugordon. The Monarchs’ top scorer and rebounder is in the portal, while the team’s assist leader, Jaden Johnson, has already transferred to La Salle.
Talent Drain, Part II
CAA neighbors Hampton and William & Mary also saw key pieces enter the portal at basketball season’s end.
Neither Noah Collier, the Tribe’s best interior player, nor Isaiah Mbeng, the team’s assist leader, has revealed his destination. Collier’s value was readily apparent when he missed the season’s final nine games with a lower extremity injury.
W&M was 14-9 overall, 8-2 in the CAA, when the 6-foot-8 Collier was shelved. The Tribe went 3-6 the remainder of the year, all against conference opponents.
In his only season at Hampton, George Beale (King’s Fork High) tripled his scoring average from 4.3 points at Norfolk State to 13.0 at HU. That ascension created an opportunity for him at Central Florida.
Hampton’s top rebounder each of the last three seasons, Kyrese Mullen (Lake Taylor, Massanutten Military), entered the portal but has not announced his next stop.
Talent Drain, Part III
Six of ESPN’s top-10 spring football transfers hail from the ACC, headlined by Stanford outside linebacker David Bailey to Texas Tech, Cal running back Jaydn Ott to Oklahoma and North Carolina defensive end Beau Atkinson (undecided).
The network’s highest-rated spring transfers headed to the ACC, ranked sixth and 11th, respectively, are South Alabama quarterback Gio Lopez to UNC and Liberty defensive end TJ Bush to Cal. Lopez led all FBS freshmen in total offense last season at 274.7 yards per game, while Bush was second-team All-Conference USA after recording 9½ tackles for loss and 5½ sacks.
He Said It
After his team’s spring game Saturday, ODU football coach Ricky Rahne was typically unvarnished and on point about the spring portal window.
“My opinion is that my opinion doesn’t matter,” he said. “I’m going to do what the rules are, and I’m going to go from there. I think we’ve done a good job to show guys that we’re going to help them develop and do things like that. Hopefully, guys want to stay and develop here and win here. If the case comes that that’s not how they are, we’re going to find the next guys, and we’re going to go win that way.”
David Teel: david.teel@virginiamedia.com; @ByDavidTeel