Of all the things that make football the most popular professional sport in America — by far — No. 1 might be the hope that’s baked into the NFL. No matter how bad a team is, Super Bowl contender status can be just a couple of years away.
This year’s New England Patriots — who will play in Super Bowl LX at Levi’s Stadium in Santa Clara, Calif., in 13 days after finishing 4-13 in 2024 — are just the latest example. The Washington Commanders made a similar ascent in 2024, coming within a win of the big game just a season after finishing 4-13.
Oddsmakers gave this year’s Patriots 80-to-1 preseason odds to win the Super Bowl. The Commanders actually had longer odds (150-1) last season. But what’s different this season is that the rest of the conference finalists were all at least 20-1 (all odds provided by sportsodds history.com). The Los Angeles Rams were 20-1, the Denver Broncos were 25-1 and the Seattle Seahawks were 60-1. Compare that to last year’s conference finalists, other than the longshot Commanders: The eventual Super Bowl champion Philadelphia Eagles were 12-1, the Buffalo Bills were 16-1 and the two-time defending champion Kansas City Chiefs were 5-1.
That’s more the norm and plenty to keep 32 fan bases interested. With free agency and a draft order and scheduling system that favor the weakest teams, there’s always a path back if you have the right leadership in place.
But all those things — as well as the variance in injury luck in a violent sport — also make it easier for good teams to fall.
When the Seahawks drafted quarterback Russell Wilson in 2012 and assembled a tough defense that included the Legion of Boom, I was certain they had two to three Super Bowl wins coming in the next few years. They won one, in 2013, even though Wilson led them to four division titles. Some would say they should’ve won a second, falling a yard short in 2014 on a questionable play call against the Patriots, but that just illustrates how hard it is to win a championship. There are so many things that can go wrong.
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Both the Seahawks — who opened as anywhere from 3.5- to 5-point favorites for Super Bowl LX — and the Patriots seem to be set up to contend for several years:
>> They both have franchise quarterbacks in place for at least two more years, though the Patriots have the advantage of Drake Maye being on a rookie contract with a salary cap hit that is a fraction of Darnold’s.
>> They seem to have good leadership in place, especially Seattle, which has made several smart moves in the past year, including taking a chance by stepping away from the very solid Geno Smith at quarterback and taking a chance on Darnold, who was coming off his only good season with the Minnesota Vikings.
>> They are among the teams with the most cap space this offseason — the Seahawks are fifth and the Patriots are 10th. New England also has five extra picks in the April draft.
All that said, looking at this Super Bowl as anything but a once-in-a-lifetime opportunity would be a mistake. As I detailed above, the Seahawks know all too well how fleeting these chances can be. But the Patriots franchise knows it too. When they won three in four years in the 2000s and Tom Brady was still just 27, it must have seemed like they’d be back every other year at least. But they only made it twice in the next nine years, and lost both.
The Seahawks are heavily favored — many viewed the NFC Championship Game as the “real Super Bowl” and the AFC final as the JV game — but if both teams understand the urgency, we should have a good game.
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Reach Sjarif Goldstein at [email protected].