Tropical cyclone likely to develop soon southeast of Hawaii

Another tropical cyclone has a 90% chance of forming just southeast of Hawaii within the next two days, and weather and emergency officials urge the public to prepare.

Matthew Rosencrans, lead hurricane seasonal forecaster for the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser that weather modeling shows the storm will likely have some impacts on island chain, especially Hawaii island which is still reeling from Hurricane Lala.

It is unclear at this time how strong and large the cyclone could be and its direction.

As of today, forecasters believe the storm will develop first into a tropical depression, a cyclone with 38 mph winds or less. Rosencrans warned that it could take just 24 hours for a depression to develop into a hurricane if conditions are right.

The storm, currently dubbed “Invest 90E” by the National Hurricane Center, is east-southeast of the islands on the west end of the Eastern Pacific basin and moving west-northwest at 10 to 15 mph. It is expected to cross into the Central Pacific tonight.

The National Weather Service in Honolulu said today that “all eyes are on” the potential tropical storm. “At this time, it is expected to move toward the state Saturday through Sunday,” forecasters said. “It is too early to forecast an exact path, but ensembles show a general consensus toward a track similar to Lala, or perhaps a bit farther south. Again, it is too early to have an exact path, and this cannot be overstated.”

Hawaii County Civil Defense and the National Weather Service said they are also closely monitoring the developing storm.

Honolulu Department of Emergency Management officials also said they are monitoring the system closely.

“We have just come through a very difficult storm, and I know the last thing anyone wants to hear is that we are watching another system,” Mayor Rick Blangiardi said in a news release. “But we need everyone to stay aware and stay prepared. We learned again with Lala how quickly conditions can change and how important it is to take these storms seriously. We are continuing our recovery work, but at the same time, we are already looking ahead and preparing for what could come next.”

As city and Hawaiian Electric crews continue to work on the clean-up and repairs from the damage wrought by Lala, officials said that city agencies are assessing what may need to be repositioned, replenished, or secured in case Invest 90E poses a threat to Oahu.

They encouraged the public to restock emergency kits now. “Replenish food, water, medications, batteries, flashlights, and other essential supplies, and make sure your family’s emergency plan is up to date. Do not wait until the system is closer to the islands to begin preparing,” they said.

Officials encouraged the public to sign up for HNL Alert, the city’s emergency notification system at HNLAlert.gov or text HNLALERT to 888777.

Meanwhile, Lala has reformed into a major Category 3 hurricane that is threatening the Northwest Hawaiian Islands, far west of Kauai. The storm is packing maximum sustained winds of 115, about 200 miles south-southwest of Maro Reef and moving northwest at 12 mph, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.

A hurricane warning is in effect for the Papahanaumokuakea Marine National Monument from Lisianski Island to Maro Reef, while a tropical storm warning is in effect for nonument east of Maro Reef to French Frigate Shoals.