Powerful Hurricane Lowell is passing far south of Hawaii through Friday but it’s where it goes afterward that has emergency officials and residents anxious.
Forecasters expect the cyclone to turn north toward the state sometime this weekend, and government leaders say the next few days are a good time to get ready.
While the details of Lowell’s turn remain uncertain, the possibility is especially unnerving on Kauai, which on Sept. 11 will mark the 34th anniversary of Hurricane Iniki, which took a similar path and devastated the island.
Lowell was briefly a Category 5 storm on Wednesday morning but weakened slightly to a strong Category 4 cyclone by the afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. It is expected to remain a major hurricane over the next several days as it moves far south of the islands, according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
By 5 p.m., Lowell was about 440 miles south of Hilo, moving west at 10 mph. It’s expected to gradually decrease in forward speed over the next few days. Hurricane-force winds of 74 mph or more extended up to 35 miles from the center, while tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more went out up to 90 miles.
Under the five-day forecast track, Lowell would start making its right turn over the weekend and be a strong Category 3 storm with 125 mph sustained winds by Monday afternoon about 300 miles southwest of Lihue.
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National Weather Service meteorologist Stephen Parker said the exact time and direction of the turn remain uncertain but the latest forecasts estimate it could occur on Saturday or Sunday.
“The spread is huge,” Parker said of Wednesday afternoon’s weather models. “But the odds greatly favor something near or west of Kauai at this time.”
Hurricane Karina, a weakening Category 4 storm on Wednesday far northeast of the islands, may play a role in determining Lowell’s ultimate path, Parker said. Karina was about 1,325 miles east of Hilo, with maximum sustained winds of 130 mph and moving west-northwest at 10 mph at 5 p.m.
Karina is forecast to continue moving west-northwestward over the next few days and be a post-tropical cyclone with 40 mph winds by Monday, hundreds of miles northeast of Hilo and moving away from the island.
“Hurricanes are low-pressure systems and low-pressure systems tend to want to come together,” Parker said. Depending on Karina’s path and how far west and northwest it travels, “it may exert some influence on Lowell and pull Lowell back to the north and back to the east.”
Karina’s path is still uncertain, Parker said, adding that Lowell’s path will have more clarity once Karina’s path is settled.
He expects that by Friday meteorologists will have more solid information on the paths of both storms, Lowell’s turn and the potential impacts for Hawaii.
For now, he said, it appears that the state could begin to see impacts on Monday or Tuesday.
“We are not confident yet that we know where this storm will go,” Parker said. “It’s possible that it could end up near Kauai. It’s less possible, but not impossible, that it could end up near Oahu. And at the very low end of possibility would be something all the way over in Maui County.” The Maui County scenario was “an exceeding low” probability as of Wednesday afternoon, he said.
Meanwhile as Lowell continues moving well south of the islands through Friday, it will be affecting the state’s weather with high surf, gusty tradewinds and frequent scattered showers, especially in windward and mauka areas.
The weather service has issued a wind advisory for all islands from the Big Island to Oahu through 6 a.m. Friday. Forecasters expect east winds of 25 to 35 mph with gusts up to 55 mph for Maui County and Hawaii island, and 20 to 30 mph with gusts up to 50 mph for Oahu.
“Winds this strong can tear off shingles, knock down tree branches, blow away tents and awnings and make it difficult to steer, especially for drivers of high profile vehicles,” the advisory says. “Watch out for falling tree branches when walking or driving. Make sure tents and awnings are secure or take them down. Be prepared for power outages.”
Parker said the wind advisories are related to Karina and Lowell because the strong low-pressure systems are contrasting with high pressure ridges in the north, which is intensifying Hawaii’s tradewinds.
A high surf advisory covers south and southeast shores for all islands through 6 p.m. Thursday. The NWS predicts large breaking waves of 7 to 10 feet and strong currents that will make swimming dangerous.
Swells from Lowell are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions for some Hawaii shores during the next couple of days, forecasters said, adding that depending on the exact track of the storm, these swells are likely to increase early next week.
Bad memories
Emergency officials with the state, and Honolulu, Kauai and Maui counties are closely monitoring the storms, with the northward turn being their main concern.
Nowhere is that concern felt more acutely than the Garden Isle, where many residents are still haunted by the Category 4 hurricane that came from the south in 1992 and made a direct hit on the island.
Like the predictions for Lowell, Iniki strengthened south of the state before making its sharp turn straight to Kauai. Forecasters and emergency officials were able to warn residents of Iniki’s landfall a day in advance, according to the Natural Disaster Survey Report on the hurricane by the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration.
Iniki killed seven people, injured around 100, and caused $1.8 billion in damage, not adjusted for inflation. Several homes on Oahu’s Leeward Coast were also “substantially damaged,” the report said, and winds caused prolonged power outages on both Kauai and Oahu.
Kauai County Mayor Derek Kawakami told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser on Wednesday that for him, taking the time to be prepared helps ease his mind.
But, he added, “seeing that path and how similar it is to Iniki, for a lot of people it probably is causing some level of anxiety.”
Anyone who is feeling panicked or anxious should discuss their feelings, he added.
“The best that we can do is make sure that we control things within our control,” Kawakami said. “Things out of our control are really out of our control.”
For residents, that means focusing on communication and emergency plans and double-checking supplies. And for Kauai County, it means pre-positioning assets, like machinery and manpower, in vulnerable areas like Hanalei, which has a history of landslides, and low-lying areas prone to flooding, down-slope areas prone to high winds and coastal areas.
“But I will tell you, having gone through Hurricane Iniki, everybody should take necessary precautions,” said Kawakami, who is in his last year as mayor and is the Democratic nominee for lieutenant governor in the Nov. 3 election.
Kauai’s building code changed following Iniki, requiring new structures to be more hurricane resistant, Kawakami said, and weather forecasting and modeling technology also has improved greatly and with more accuracy. He added that the forecast — especially the certainty of Lowell’s turn direction — will be more accurate as the storm gets closer over the weekend.
Kauai County Emergency Management Agency keeps an updated list of hurricane refuge areas on its website, he said, adding that it’s still too early to know which ones will be activated when the storm approaches.
Kawakami stressed for residents, especially Iniki survivors, to take care of their mental health.
“We don’t want people to panic or have overwhelming anxiety. I know it’s hard because for those folks that have been through Hurricane Iniki, seeing that hurricane path that Lowell is taking may trigger some memories. It was an extremely challenging time to go through,” he said.
“Having wellness checks on your family members and friends is extremely critical right now. If you haven’t talked to a friend in a while, you should reach out and just see how they’re doing. But being observant, taking notes of anything that’s out of character could be a sign of somebody going through anxiety that just needs somebody to comfort them or ask them if they need any help. It’s amazing how far just random acts of kindness and aloha can go as far as getting a community ready for any type of challenge that lies ahead.”
Honolulu Mayor Rick Blangiardi echoed Kawakami’s sentiment.
“We don’t know yet exactly where Lowell is going to turn or what impacts it could eventually bring to Hawaii,” Blangiardi said in a news release. “What we do know is that we have time right now, and we need to use it. I’m asking everyone on Oahu to stay vigilant, follow the forecast, and make sure you and your family are prepared. Don’t wait until the weekend. Take advantage of these extra days and get ready now.”
While city officials are urging residents to prepare now, they added that “there is no reason to panic or rush to stores.”
“Having several days of advance notice provides an opportunity to methodically check emergency supplies, address any gaps in family plans and continue monitoring the forecast,” they said in the release.
Maui County officials said residents should have at least 14 days of essentials stocked.
“I know our community has been through a lot this hurricane season, and some are still recovering from the effects of recent storms — but this is exactly the time when we need to remain vigilant and ready,” Maui County Mayor Richard Bissen said in a news release.
Throughout the rest of the week, residents should check and replenish emergency food, water, medication and other supplies, ensure flashlights, batteries, portable chargers and radios are working, fill their vehicles with fuel and get backup generators ready to operate safely and secure outdoor furniture and loose items. Reviewing family emergency and communication plans, as well as checking on kupuna and neighbors who may need preparation assistance, is also advised. If not already, continue to monitor the forecast and sign up for county emergency alerts.
While Lowell and Karina churn closer to Hawaii, Marie also became a hurricane Wednesday as it moved northwestward in the East Pacific. At about 5 p.m., Marie was about 375 miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, Mexico, carrying maximum sustained winds of 80 mph and moving west-northwest and away from land at 10 mph.
All eyes on Lowell
Lowell was briefly a Category 5 storm on Wednesday morning, weakening to a strong Category 4 cyclone by the afternoon with maximum sustained winds of 155 mph. By 5 p.m. Wednesday, Lowell was about 440 miles south of Hilo, moving west at 10 mph.
Be prepared
Honolulu city officials say now is a good time to get ready for possible impacts from Hurricane Lowell. They urged residents in the next few days to:
>> Check and replenish emergency food, water, medications and other supplies.
>> Make sure flashlights, batteries, portable chargers and radios are working.
>> Fill vehicles with fuel and make sure backup generators are ready to operate safely.
>> Secure or make plans to secure outdoor furniture and other loose items.
>> Review family emergency and communication plans.
>> Check on kupuna, neighbors and others who may need assistance preparing.
>> Sign up for HNL Alert to receive emergency information from the city.
>> Continue monitoring official forecasts from the National Weather Service and Central Pacific Hurricane Center.
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Oahu residents can sign up for HNL Alert at honolulu.gov/dem/hnl-alert, Kauai residents can sign up for ALERT Kauai at 808ne.ws/4iacNii, Maui County residents can sign up for MEMA alerts at 808ne.ws/4gxX1MO and Hawaii island residents can sign up for Civil Defense alerts at bit.ly/CDAlerts.