Hurricane Lowell’s expected turn resembles paths of Iniki, Dot

The only two hurricanes to make direct landfall in Hawaii in modern history both made sharp turns before crossing over Kauai — a similar turn forecasters and emergency officials are watching closely as Hurricane Lowell moves south of the islands.

Lowell, a Category 4 storm with 130 mph sustained winds Thursday, is expected to make its turn Saturday evening, forecasters said. Lowell is expected to gradually decrease in forward speed within the next two days then turn northwest and north, with the
5 p.m. Wednesday forecast map showing the storm possibly skimming Niihau.

Experts agree that the similar paths are likely a coincidence rather than a pattern, with the three storms each over 30 years apart.

“We remember the ones that turn there
because that brings them up toward us,” National Weather Service meteorologist Stephen Parker told the Honolulu Star-Advertiser. “But many, many, many more hurricanes just go right on by. … It’s one of those human things where we tend to remember the ones that had an impact, and the ones that have an impact are the ones that (turned) in that area.”

“It’s actually kind of rare, if you think about it,” Parker added. “We haven’t had very many do this.”

Hurricane Dot was the first hurricane in
recorded history to make landfall in Hawaii. It was detected around 1,200 miles southeast of Honolulu on Aug. 1, 1959, and a U.S. Air Force plane that flew into the hurricane the following day found Category 4 wind speeds of around 137 mph near the center, according to an archived report from the U.S. Weather Bureau, which is now known as the National Weather Service. At the time, flying a plane into the storm was the only way to track the cyclone, and the military branch made three “fixes” on Dot’s location each day, the
report said.

“This reconnaissance coverage permitted the Weather Bureau’s Hurricane Warning Center at Honolulu to chart the storm through the ocean area east of Hawaii where there were virtually no other data available to warn the islands well in advance,” the report said.

Dot weakened on its fifth day south of the island chain, with the military recording low-grade Category 3 wind speeds of around
115 mph on Aug. 5. Dot turned toward Kauai the morning of Aug. 6, with warnings for the island and Oahu beginning at 5 a.m., and made landfall that evening, with the military recording 115 mph winds at
5 p.m. and low-grade Category 2 winds of 103 mph at 11 p.m. Land stations on
island detected the hurricane on-island around 10 miles northeast of Lihue around 8 p.m.

According to the report, no death or injuries were reported as a direct result of Dot. Kauai faced $6 million in property damage, not adjusted for inflation, with damage particularly intense on the eastern half of the
island. The report said homes and buildings were damaged, hundreds of trees blown down, many roads washed out and there were “severe agricultural losses” in sugar cane and fruit trees.

Oahu faced “only minor damage” from high surf,
local flooding and high winds, the report said.

By 1992, Hawaii had a single geostationary satellite covering the water areas south and east of the islands. Thanks to that single satellite, emergency officials were able to detect Iniki and warn residents before landfall, according to NOAA’s Natural Disaster Survey
Report on Iniki. The report recommended more satellites be installed above the island chain.

Iniki was detected as a tropical storm on Sept. 5, 1992, southeast of the islands. It continued to strengthen as it passed south of the islands, making its dreaded turn toward Kauai on the evening of Sept. 10, allowing forecasters to give residents and
visitors one-day notice for impacts. It made landfall on the Garden Isle on Sept. 11 with Category 4 winds between 130 to 160 mph.

The cyclone devastated Kauai and the Leeward Coast of Oahu. Seven people died in the storm. On Kauai, three mariners were killed in the ocean, one resident was hit and killed by debris, another resident was crushed when her home collapsed and another died of a heart attack. One person died on Oahu in a house fire started by a candle used during a power outage, the report said.

Several homes and buildings on Kauai and in Leeward Oahu were damaged or destroyed, and winds caused prolonged power outages on both islands. In total, Iniki caused around $1.8 billion in damage, unadjusted for inflation.

Iniki formed and moved west around 300 miles
farther south than Dot, which allowed it to build more energy in the warmer waters closer to the equator, Hawaii State Climatologist Pao-Shin Chu said. Hurricane Lowell was located slightly more south than Iniki this week, and
its predicted turn appears to be more sharp.

“The most dangerous storm, as far as Hawaii
is concerned, is coming from the south,” Chu said. “The intensity becomes much stronger and you can see this is the case for
Lowell.”

Lowell was detected
Aug. 27 as a tropical storm in the East Pacific, and strengthened from a Category 1 hurricane to a Category 4 within one day as it entered the Central Pacific southeast of Hawaii.

According to both Parker and Chu, the sharp turn in these storms is characterized by a low-pressure system, like a hurricane, coming in contact with an upper-level trough, or another low-pressure system at a higher altitude. The trough essentially can pull the hurricane north, causing a sudden turn.

National Weather Service meteorologist Matthew
Foster emphasized that while there are similarities between Lowell and past storms, it doesn’t mean Lowell will act the same or cause the same kind of impacts. He added that other storms in the Central Pacific also had sharp turns caused by upper-level troughs but did not impact Hawaii.

“It’s a completely different storm,” Foster said. “It’s going to behave independently of what happened with Iniki, or or any of the other ones that that took a similar path.”

Forecasting and data analysis has also improved greatly, Foster added, with multiple satellites and advanced-computer modeling working alongside real-time data points collected by
military planes.