1. In May, you said it might be a “very busy” hurricane season for Hawaii. Has that prediction changed or become more probable?
Yes, it does look more likely that we’ll have a very busy hurricane season.
We gave an extremely large range with the May hurricane season outlook: 5 to 13 tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific, when an average year is 4 to 5. The big source of uncertainty in May was how quickly El Niño would develop and how much it would strengthen during our hurricane season.
The June outlook showed that El Niño is already in place and there is a higher likelihood for a strong event this summer. That places us toward the higher end of the “5 to 13 tropical cyclones” range, making it more likely to have an active hurricane season.
The hurricane season outlook is for the Central Pacific basin, which is the area north of the equator between 140°W and the International Date Line. The outlook doesn’t consider potential impacts to Hawai‘i. We can anticipate a busier season for the state given more activity within the basin, but it’s not necessarily a direct relationship.
2. El Nino is predicted to be unusually powerful this year, with some already calling it a “super” cycle. How have past El Nino patterns impacted the islands, and what makes this one different?
Don’t miss out on what’s happening!
Stay in touch with breaking news, as it happens, conveniently in your email inbox. It’s FREE!
NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center uses more subdued descriptors to talk about the strength of El Niño events: Weak, Moderate, Strong, and Very Strong. A “Very Strong” El Niño is when ocean temperatures are warmer than normal by 2°C or more.
There have been several “Very Strong” El Niños in the past, most recently in 2015-16. That was our record-setting hurricane season with 15 tropical cyclones in the Central Pacific (plus another in December… as well as one in January 2016). Residents might also remember 2015 as being very hot and humid, with many temperature records set across the state.
Other “very strong” El Niños occurred in 1997-98 (Tropical Storm Paka formed in December and became a Typhoon before impacting Guam), 1991-1992 (Hurricane Iniki formed in September and made landfall on Kauai as a major hurricane), and 1982-83 (Hurricane Iwa formed in November and passed just offshore of Kauai during the week of Thanksgiving).
3. What weather events are good indicators or predictors for a coming hurricane?
People typically think of hurricane damage happening when it makes landfall. However, there are many impactful hazards that occur far away from a hurricane.
Dangerous high surf and rip currents begin days in advance of a hurricane and are usually one of the first hazards to impact the state. High surf can remain deadly even after the hurricane weakens. There were two drowning deaths on Oahu in 2016 due to high surf from Hurricane Celia in the eastern Pacific.
Distant hurricanes can also heighten wildfire risk by making trade winds stronger and drier, even when they are hundreds of miles away. Hurricane Hector in 2018 and Hurricane Dora in 2023 both contributed to very large wildfires on multiple islands. In fact, the World Meteorological Organization retired the name “Dora” due to the association it has with the devastating wildfires on Maui and Hawai‘i Islands.
4. Beyond hurricanes, how else does El Nino affect weather in the Pacific?
During the summertime, Hawai‘i tends to have a wetter than average dry season, in part due to rain from tropical systems. Warmer ocean temperatures also lead to warmer than normal air temperatures and higher humidity. Trade winds also tend to be weaker and more inconsistent, making it feel even hotter.
Going into the winter, the Hawai‘i wet season tends to be much drier than normal. Rather than have large storm systems dig down to our latitude like we saw in March and April, they tend to move east to west across the northern Pacific during El Niño winters. Instead of rain, that storm track leads to light winds and dry conditions across the state. Then again, those north Pacific storm systems also generate very large swells that lead to an active winter surf season.
In addition to weather impacts, El Niño is associated with higher than normal sea level heights in Hawai‘i. The warmer ocean temperatures also increase the risk of damage to reefs from coral bleaching.
5. What can residents do to prepare for Super El Nino weather?
Take action now when the weather is quiet. Don’t wait until a storm is bearing down on us. At the very least, you should know what you will do during a hurricane: is it safe to stay at home, considering the different hazards of damaging winds, flash flooding, and storm surge? If not, can you stay with friends or family? Don’t wait to try and figure it out as a hurricane approaches.
Also, try and stock up on as much extra food, water, medicine, and supplies as you can. The goal is 14 days per person but don’t be discouraged if that seems too difficult: a little is better than none.
Search online for the University of Hawai‘i Sea Grant College Program publication “Homeowner’s Handbook to Prepare for Natural Hazards”. It’s a great free resource that covers natural hazards we face in Hawai‘i. It provides advice for protecting yourself and your family (emergency supplies, evacuation plans) and also protecting your property (hurricane clip retrofits, window covers).