Hawaii residents are strongly urged to finalize preparations today as a storm system brewing less that 1,000 miles from Hilo is expected to bring heavy rain, high winds and dangerous surf to the state, beginning Friday on the Big Island.
“We have been preparing for this possibility throughout the week, and we are continuing to step up those preparations across the city,” Mayor Rick Blangiardi said in a news release. “There is still uncertainty about exactly what this system will bring, but the window to prepare is getting shorter.”
The disturbance, dubbed Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C on Wednesday, is expected today to become a tropical storm, to be named Lala, as it heads straight for Hawaii island, followed by a path just south of all other islands Saturday and Sunday.
“The Potential Tropical Cyclone is expected to produce rainfall totals of 5 to 10 inches across much of the island chain, with maximum totals of 20 inches possible,” according to the Central Pacific Hurricane Center’s forecast Wednesday. “This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain.”
Forecasters on Wednesday predicted a high 90% chance of tropical storm formation within 48 hours.
Heavy rain is expected to reach Hawaii island by late Friday, then move west to just south of Maui, Lanai and Molokai on Saturday, Oahu from Saturday night into Sunday and Kauai late Sunday. However, the storm’s movement has proven challenging to predict since it had yet to form a center as of late Wednesday.
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At about 5 p.m., the storm was about 835 miles east-southeast of Hilo and about 1,045 miles east-southeast of Honolulu. One-C was packing maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and moving west at 9 mph. Tropical storm-force winds of 39 mph or more extended up to 275 miles.
A westward to west-northwest motion was expected over the next few days and the center of the expected tropical storm is forecast to be near Hawaii by late Friday.
“Models … generally show a more conducive trough interaction than a high-shear one, and the system is expected to be near hurricane strength by the time it nears the Hawaiian islands,” according to the forecast. “This forecast could be conservative beyond three days, especially if the system moves south of expected.”
A tropical storm watch most likely will be issued for some parts of the state by early today, forecasters said.
Life-threatening surf generated by the disturbance is expected to hit the eastern shores starting Friday and continue growing over the weekend.
By 5 p.m. today, the storm is expected to be a tropical storm with maximum sustained winds of 50 mph and stronger gusts. By Friday evening, as it approaches Hawaii island, winds are forecast to be about 65 mph, then peak at 70 mph on Saturday, just below Category 1 hurricane threshold of 74 mph.
The fast-moving storm’s latest five-day track has it passing just south of Oahu on Saturday night to Sunday morning, and passing southwest of Kauai by late Sunday.
Weather officials said potential impacts to Oahu include:
>> Increased wildfire danger: As winds strengthen and low humidity develops ahead of the system, the potential for dangerous wildfire conditions increases. Fire weather concerns are expected to increase Friday.
>> Strong, gusty winds: Winds are expected to increase Friday and strengthen further on Saturday.
>> Large, rough surf: The system will generate a large easterly swell, with warning-level surf of 15 feet or higher possible into the weekend.
>> Heavy rainfall and flooding: The system could bring periods of heavy rainfall, with the potential for life-threatening flooding, mudslides and rapidly rising streams.
Residents should understand these potential impacts can occur even if the center of the system does not pass directly over Oahu, Honolulu city officials said. They should continue to monitor the forecast as the system develops and moves closer to the Hawaii.
Blangiardi urged residents to spend today finishing preparations for their homes and families. “Stay informed, take this seriously and be ready,” he said
Residents should check their emergency supplies, secure their property and make sure their families know what they will do if conditions become dangerous, officials said.
“We don’t control the storm, but we do control how well prepared we are for it,” he said earlier this week.
Blangiardi convened a meeting of his Cabinet on Tuesday evening to coordinate preparations. The mayor said he has directed city departments to review their emergency plans, staffing, equipment and facilities and to be prepared to adjust operations quickly should the threat to Oahu increase.
City departments already have begun taking the following precautionary steps:
>> The Honolulu Police Department’s Major Events Division is preparing for the possible activation of the department’s Joint Operations Center to coordinate emergency response efforts during major incidents.
>> The Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation will secure construction areas ahead of the storm by reinforcing worksites, ensuring equipment is secured.
>> The city’s Community Outreach Response and Engagements (CORE) teams reached out to people living in encampments near streams, under bridges and other areas vulnerable to severe weather about the approaching storm. CORE offered them transportation and connections to emergency shelter and supportive services.
>> The Department of Facility Maintenance continues to monitor streams and drainage infrastructure across Oahu. “At this time, DFM does not anticipate opening stream mouths until closer to the storm’s potential arrival,” city officials said Wednesday. “With higher surf possible, opening stream mouths too early could allow them to close again before the system arrives. Crews will continue to monitor conditions and determine the appropriate timing for any necessary work.”
They urged residents to take the following steps now:
>> Assemble or replenish emergency supplies, including enough food, water, medications, and essential items to last at least 14 days. Have flashlights, batteries, portable chargers and other supplies ready in the event of a power outage.
>> Secure outdoor furniture, equipment, and other loose objects that could become hazardous in strong winds.
>> Clear gutters, drains and areas that could contribute to flooding.
>> Use extreme caution with open flames, outdoor equipment or any activity that could spark a wildfire, particularly during periods of strong or gusty winds.
>> Keep vehicles fueled and avoid waiting until the last minute to purchase essential supplies.
>> Know whether homes are in a flood, coastal or other hazard area and be prepared to relocate if necessary.
>> Sign up for HNL Alert emergency notifications by visiting hnlalert.gov or texting HNLALERT to 888777.
City officials also ask residents not to rely on unverified information circulating on social media, noting that the National Weather Service and Central Pacific Hurricane Center remain the authoritative sources for these forecasts, which can change quickly.
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For more information on emergency preparations, visit honolulu.gov/dem.