Jason Cook is an educator, originally from New Brunswick and now based in Edmonton, Alberta, who has lived and worked across Eastern, Western and Northern Canada.
Vice President JD Vance came to Brewer on Monday to say Canada cannot win this trade fight and will return to the negotiating table. Yeah, he may want a chair. Canada is not crouched outside the White House waiting to be forgiven. It is finding other doors.
In one year, the American share of Canadian exports fell from 76% to 68%. Canada sold C$35 billion less to the United States but offset most of it with a C$29 billion increase elsewhere. That is not surrender. It is a delivery truck changing its route.
Mark Carney’s government signed 20 trade and security agreements on four continents in its first 10 months, including deals with Indonesia, Ecuador and the United Arab Emirates. It rebuilt ties with China and India, pushed deeper into Asia and became the only non-European country admitted to the European Union’s €150 billion SAFE defense-procurement program.
Vance mocks Canada for depending on American protection while Canadian companies are gaining access to Europe’s weapons market. That is like laughing at a customer for needing your store while watching him load his truck across the street.
Canadian consumers have been just as diplomatic. Trips to the United States fell about 25% in 2025 — four million fewer visits — and Canadians spent US$3.3 billion less there. Travel to Europe and Asia rose instead. Washington may call that sulking. American hotels call it vacancy.
Then there is the liquor boycott. U.S. spirits exports to Canada collapsed by 85% in the second quarter of 2025. American bottles disappeared, Canadian and other brands took their places and customers discovered the truth that Kentucky did not invent alcohol.
Here is the part Vance forgot to tell Maine: lost customers do not sit in suspended animation waiting for Donald Trump to leave office. Airlines change routes. Stores sign with new suppliers. Companies build new distribution networks. Families discover Portugal. Once those habits form, an apology and a duty-free coupon will not magically reset the calendar to 2024.
Maine already knows this. Its exports to Canada dropped about 18%, while Canadian border crossings fell 25%. Border communities recorded weaker retail, restaurant and lodging sales. Vance stood in Brewer and accused Canada of taking advantage of Maine while fewer Canadians were arriving to spend money there. Apparently the customer is now the thief because he stopped entering the store.
Sen. Susan Collins calls the 50% tariffs a mistake. Fine. Maine can reelect Collins, elect a Democrat or send the friendliest dog in Bangor to Washington. None of them can order Canadian tourists back across the border, cancel agreements signed overseas or make Canadians forget why they changed their buying habits.
Canada will be hurt by this trade war. Nobody serious claims otherwise. But Canada can survive two more years while building alternatives. The danger for the United States is what happens after those alternatives begin working.
By the time Trump is gone, temporary detours may have become permanent roads. European factories will have Canadian suppliers. Asian customers will have Canadian contracts. Canadian vacationers will have favourite hotels that are not in Maine or Florida. American businesses will discover that market share, unlike a campaign promise, does not return on command.
The United States tried to frighten Canada back into dependence. Instead, it gave Canada a deadline for escaping it. That may be Donald Trump’s most productive achievement.
Vance, meanwhile, is what happens when a résumé is mistaken for a mind. He is no authority on trade, defense or Canada. He rode into office beside Trump, and America is now living with what its voters mistook for competence.
Perhaps he should stop explaining Canada to Canadians and stick to the one subject on which the internet has awarded him expertise: couches. He should pick a comfortable one. Canada is not crawling back, and this could be a very long sit.